Math can be fun

Especially when it shows the potential of MMJ and LMJ! We took a quick a look at this article in Marijuana Business Daily about the early results of Illinois’s MMJ experiment and our analytically-driven brains quickly did some math.

But, first, the facts:

  • 1 month of sales data (November 9 through December 8)
  • 1,713 unique patients
  • 16 licensed dispensaries but only 8 open (”about half”)
  • Illinois MMJ 1-month sales: $801k
  • Illinois population: 12.9 million
  • California population: 38.8 million (2013)
  • California dispensaries: estimated at 1,000

We need hypotheses before making projections and we will assume here that sales trends will be linear and patterns will be consistent over time (probably inaccurate but the best we can do with the data we have).

And, now, the fun projections:

  1. Average monthly sales per patient: $467.60. This seems VERY high to us. Are they hoarding for the harsh IL winter months?
  2. Average monthly sales per dispensary: $100,125.
  3. Average patients per dispensary: 214. Per day per dispensary (assuming opened every day): 10. This seems very low.
  4. Annualized per dispensary sales: $1,201,500. This will obviously be much higher as the article mentioned that 3,600 MMJ patients were approved in the state but only 1,713 shopped.
  5. Expected number of dispensaries in 5 years based on the assumption that MMJ dispensaries per state resident will be the same as California: 332.
  6. Expected annual sales assuming the annualized per dispensary sales are double the figure in point #4 above: $798.9m (vs. $700m in combined LMJ/MMJ sales in CO in 2014 with a population of 5.4 million).

We will let you draw your own conclusions.

By: JP Clement